Will Jamie Raskin say “Corrupt / Corruption”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Jamie Raskin said “Corrupt / Corruption” at 6 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 12, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 6/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jamie Raskin
Corrupt / Corruption
- Probability
- 41% · n=9
- Settled
- 6/9 (67%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 2 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Jamie Raskin say “Corrupt / Corruption”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Jamie Raskin said “Corrupt / Corruption” at 6 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 12, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Jamie Raskin says “Corrupt / Corruption” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jamie Raskin: ‘Corrupt / Corruption’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jamie-raskin/words/corrupt-or-corruption (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jamie-raskin&word=corrupt%20%2F%20corruption · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jamie-raskin&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP