Will “Trump” be said 3+ times on The Weeknight next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Trump” was said 3+ times on The Weeknight in 1 of 7 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 15, 2026 (14%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 16, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 1/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Weeknight
Trump (3+ times)
- Probability
- 38% · n=7
- Settled
- 1/7 (14%)
- Last 5 episodes
- said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 62 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 40 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 54 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 2 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 1 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Trump (3+ times)” said on The Weeknight?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Trump” was said 3+ times on The Weeknight in 1 of 7 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 15, 2026 (14%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
- What is the probability “Trump (3+ times)” is said on The Weeknight next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Weeknight: ‘Trump (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-weeknight/words/trump-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-weeknight&word=trump%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-weeknight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP