What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said on The Briefing next time?

45%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Shutdown / Shut Down” be said on The Briefing next time?

Name: The Briefing: “Shutdown / Shut Down” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was not said on The Briefing in any of the 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 8, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

45%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no
Streak: not said the last 5 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 12:50 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Briefing with Jen Psaki

Shutdown / Shut Down

Probability: 45% · n=5
Settled: 0/5 (0%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Wes Moore say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Mark Kelly say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Amy Klobuchar say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Wes Moore say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Sherrod Brown say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Josh Shapiro say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JB Pritzker say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Troy Jackson say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Josh Turek say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Apr 14, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Apr 7, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Feb 20, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Feb 19, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Jan 29, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No

Questions

How often is “Shutdown / Shut Down” said on The Briefing?: As of Oct 25, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was not said on The Briefing in any of the 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 29, 2026.
What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said on The Briefing next time?: 45%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Briefing: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-briefing-with-jen-psaki/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP