NYT front-page headlines, September 14–20, 2026
In the week ending Sep 20, 2026, 7 of the 15 words Polymarket listed appeared in front-page headlines; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 70%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 71%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Vote / Voter / Votes | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Risk / Risked | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Space | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woman | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ireland / Irish | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Laptop | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lawyer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Poverty | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockade | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPrint page (OCR) · The New York Times, front page (print) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
2 matches for “Risk”; 2 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
DEEP-RED AREAS AT RISK FOR G.O.P. IN THE MIDTERMS
While Tech Titans Warn About Rules, Advisers Warn About Risks
Where the listed words were said
Snooze Button On A.I. Alarm
Saudis, Besieged by Foes, Feel Brushed Off by Trump
Election Officials Work to Restore Trust With Confused Voters
IRAN PEACE DEAL WAS SABOTAGED BY HARD-LINERS
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/nyt-front-page:2026-09-20:front_page · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=nyt-front-page:2026-09-20:front_page · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP