Oscars

Entertainment · Awards & specialsShowHistory onlyUpdated Oct 23, 2026, 23:51 UTC

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As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 77 word markets on Oscars since 2025, on 54 different words.

History Wall

1–40 of 54, most settled first · page 1 of 2

Oscars: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Mar 2 ’25awards show	Mar 2awards show	Mar 15 ’26awards show	Mar 16latest	Last 4	Settled	Probability
Epsteinnever said	NSettled no: Epstein, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	NSettled no: Epstein, Mar 2 awards show	NSettled no: Epstein, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	NSettled no: Epstein, Mar 16 awards show	0/40%	0/40%	30%n=4 from settlement history
Trumpnever said	NSettled no: Trump, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	NSettled no: Trump, Mar 2 awards show	NSettled no: Trump, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	NSettled no: Trump, Mar 16 awards show	0/40%	0/40%	30%n=4 from settlement history
Timothée / Chalamet	YSettled yes: Timothée / Chalamet, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	YSettled yes: Timothée / Chalamet, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Timothée / Chalamet, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	YSettled yes: Timothée / Chalamet, Mar 16 awards show	3/3100%	3/3100%	57%n=3 from settlement history
AI / Artificial Intelligence	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 16 awards show	2/2100%	2/2100%	56%n=2 from settlement history
Bob Dylan / Dylan	YSettled yes: Bob Dylan / Dylan, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	YSettled yes: Bob Dylan / Dylan, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Bob Dylan / Dylan, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Bob Dylan / Dylan, Mar 16 awards show	2/2100%	2/2100%	51%n=2 from settlement history
Drake	YSettled yes: Drake, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	YSettled yes: Drake, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Drake, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Drake, Mar 16 awards show	2/2100%	2/2100%	51%n=2 from settlement history
Fire	YSettled yes: Fire, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	YSettled yes: Fire, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Fire, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Fire, Mar 16 awards show	2/2100%	2/2100%	51%n=2 from settlement history
Karla Sofía Gascón	YSettled yes: Karla Sofía Gascón, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	YSettled yes: Karla Sofía Gascón, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Karla Sofía Gascón, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Karla Sofía Gascón, Mar 16 awards show	2/2100%	2/2100%	51%n=2 from settlement history
Kendrick / Lamar	YSettled yes: Kendrick / Lamar, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	YSettled yes: Kendrick / Lamar, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Kendrick / Lamar, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Kendrick / Lamar, Mar 16 awards show	2/2100%	2/2100%	51%n=2 from settlement history
LA / Los Angeles	YSettled yes: LA / Los Angeles, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	YSettled yes: LA / Los Angeles, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: LA / Los Angeles, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: LA / Los Angeles, Mar 16 awards show	2/2100%	2/2100%	51%n=2 from settlement history
Netflix	–Not listed: Netflix, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Netflix, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: Netflix, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	YSettled yes: Netflix, Mar 16 awards show	2/2100%	2/2100%	56%n=2 from settlement history
Stream / Streaming	YSettled yes: Stream / Streaming, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	YSettled yes: Stream / Streaming, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Stream / Streaming, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Stream / Streaming, Mar 16 awards show	2/2100%	2/2100%	51%n=2 from settlement history
Adrien / Brody	NSettled no: Adrien / Brody, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	NSettled no: Adrien / Brody, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Adrien / Brody, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Adrien / Brody, Mar 16 awards show	0/20%	0/20%	37%n=2 from settlement history
Botox	NSettled no: Botox, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	NSettled no: Botox, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Botox, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Botox, Mar 16 awards show	0/20%	0/20%	37%n=2 from settlement history
Disney	NSettled no: Disney, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	NSettled no: Disney, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Disney, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Disney, Mar 16 awards show	0/20%	0/20%	37%n=2 from settlement history
Gene/Hackman	NSettled no: Gene/Hackman, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	NSettled no: Gene/Hackman, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Gene/Hackman, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Gene/Hackman, Mar 16 awards show	0/20%	0/20%	37%n=2 from settlement history
Holding space	NSettled no: Holding space, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	NSettled no: Holding space, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Holding space, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Holding space, Mar 16 awards show	0/20%	0/20%	37%n=2 from settlement history
Kidman	NSettled no: Kidman, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	NSettled no: Kidman, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Kidman, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Kidman, Mar 16 awards show	0/20%	0/20%	37%n=2 from settlement history
Alien	–Not listed: Alien, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Alien, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: Alien, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Alien, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Ballet	–Not listed: Ballet, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Ballet, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: Ballet, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Ballet, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Leo / DiCaprio	–Not listed: Leo / DiCaprio, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Leo / DiCaprio, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Leo / DiCaprio, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	YSettled yes: Leo / DiCaprio, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Hollywood	–Not listed: Hollywood, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Hollywood, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Hollywood, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	YSettled yes: Hollywood, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Iran / Iranian	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: Iran / Iranian, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Leo	–Not listed: Leo, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Leo, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: Leo, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Leo, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Marty Supreme	–Not listed: Marty Supreme, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Marty Supreme, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: Marty Supreme, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	YSettled yes: Marty Supreme, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Mom	–Not listed: Mom, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Mom, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: Mom, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Mom, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Opera	–Not listed: Opera, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Opera, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: Opera, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Opera, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Palestine	–Not listed: Palestine, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Palestine, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: Palestine, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Palestine, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
President	–Not listed: President, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: President, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: President, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: President, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Will Smith / Punch	–Not listed: Will Smith / Punch, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Will Smith / Punch, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: Will Smith / Punch, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Will Smith / Punch, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
White House	–Not listed: White House, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: White House, Mar 2 awards show	YSettled yes: White House, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: White House, Mar 16 awards show	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Anthropic / Claude	–Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Mar 2 awards show	NSettled no: Anthropic / Claude, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Mar 16 awards show	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
ICE / Border	–Not listed: ICE / Border, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: ICE / Border, Mar 2 awards show	–Not listed: ICE / Border, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	NSettled no: ICE / Border, Mar 16 awards show	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Chalamet5+ times	–Not listed: Chalamet 5+ times, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Chalamet 5+ times, Mar 2 awards show	NSettled no: Chalamet 5+ times, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Chalamet 5+ times, Mar 16 awards show	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Charlie Kirk	–Not listed: Charlie Kirk, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Charlie Kirk, Mar 2 awards show	NSettled no: Charlie Kirk, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Charlie Kirk, Mar 16 awards show	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Dream Big	–Not listed: Dream Big, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Dream Big, Mar 2 awards show	NSettled no: Dream Big, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Dream Big, Mar 16 awards show	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Ellison	–Not listed: Ellison, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Ellison, Mar 2 awards show	NSettled no: Ellison, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Ellison, Mar 16 awards show	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Elon	–Not listed: Elon, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Elon, Mar 2 awards show	NSettled no: Elon, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Elon, Mar 16 awards show	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Ice Out / Fuck Ice	–Not listed: Ice Out / Fuck Ice, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Ice Out / Fuck Ice, Mar 2 awards show	NSettled no: Ice Out / Fuck Ice, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Ice Out / Fuck Ice, Mar 16 awards show	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Greenland	–Not listed: Greenland, Mar 2 ’25 awards show	–Not listed: Greenland, Mar 2 awards show	NSettled no: Greenland, Mar 15 ’26 awards show	–Not listed: Greenland, Mar 16 awards show	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

More words (14 left)

Citeparrot.markets, “Oscars: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/oscars (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/oscars · words: /api/v1/history?entity=oscars · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP