Will “Trump” be said on Oscars next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trump” was not said on Oscars in any of the 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 2, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
30%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Oscars
Trump
- Probability
- 30% · n=4
- Settled
- 0/4 (0%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Oscars yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Trump” said on Oscars?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trump” was not said on Oscars in any of the 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 2, 2025.
- What is the probability “Trump” is said on Oscars next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Oscars: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/oscars/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=oscars&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=oscars&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP