Oscars: Awards show, Mar 16, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Conan O'Brien hosts the Oscars
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timothée / Chalamet | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Leo / DiCaprio | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Netflix | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hollywood | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marty Supreme | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Will Smith | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hulu | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / Border | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Podcast / Podcaster | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Warner | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-CONA26MAR15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP