# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2025-10-31 (settled) · 21 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-in-october · as_of 2026-10-26T01:22:56Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-10-31 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-in-october (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Jesus	jesus	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	16	8	0.5	nYnYYYYYnY	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
China Virus	china virus	0	0			0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Pocahontas	pocahonta	18	12	0.67	YYYYYnYnnn	0.48	hist	0	0	no	1
Ass	ass	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.48	hist	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	21	8	0.38	nnnnYnnnnn	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bitcoin	bitcoin	10	1	0.1	nnnnnnYnnn	0.37	hist	0	0	no	1
Bread	bread	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Chile / New Zealand / Albania	albania|chile|new zealand	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Don't Take Tylenol	don't take tylenol	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Drone war	drone war	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Ebay	ebay	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Greta / Thunberg	greta|thunberg	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Jeffrey Epstein	jeffrey epstein	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Jerome Too Late Powell	jerome too late powell	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
Little Rocket Man	little rocket man	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Marxism	marxism	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
N Word	n word	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Russia Russia Russia Hoax	russia russia russia hoax	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	yes	1
They Spit We Hit / They Spit And We Hit	they spit and we hit|they spit we hit	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1
Tom Cruise	tom cruise	0	0			0.5	prior	0	0	no	1