# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · debate 2024-06-27 · 15 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-the-debate · as_of 2026-10-26T01:22:56Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2024-06-27 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · every p is a prior (base rate: no settled history of these words) · same on every row: thr 1, v P, p_src prior · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
w	key	n	y	rate	p	res
Abortion	abortion	0	0		0.49	yes
Crack	crack	0	0		0.49	no
Crypto/Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	0	0		0.49	no
Dementia	dementia	0	0		0.49	no
Fake News	fake new	0	0		0.49	no
Felon	felon	0	0		0.49	yes
Hunter	hunter	0	0		0.49	yes
Jail/Prison	jail|prison	0	0		0.49	yes
Jew	jew	0	0		0.49	no
MAGA	maga	0	0		0.49	yes
Obama	obama	0	0		0.49	yes
Putin	putin	0	0		0.49	yes
Rigged	rigged	0	0		0.49	yes
Shark	shark	0	0		0.49	no
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	0	0		0.49	no