Will Donald Trump say “Jail/Prison”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Jail/Prison” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 27, 2024 (100%), most recently on Jul 18, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Jail/Prison
- Probability
- 41% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 2 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…free health care to all illegal aliens, defunding the police, closing all prisons, releasing thousands of violent criminals to rob, rape, and kill. Why can't…
…you imagine? And I pardoned many people who Biden administration sent to jail. They were fixing, you know what they were sent to jail for?…
…who's been arrested, wired $10,000 right away to get them out of jail, except nobody was arrested, nobody is in jail, and the money goes…
…way we had to live without people murderers and they came from prisons. They came from all over the world prisons. They emptied out their…
…continue. If you steal from the American people you should go to jail, and it shouldn't be up to a district judge to decide whether…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2024 | Jail/Prison |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Jun 27, 2024 | Jail/Prison | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Jail/Prison”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Jail/Prison” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 27, 2024 (100%), most recently on Jul 18, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Jail/Prison” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Jail/Prison’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/jail-or-prison (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=jail%20%2F%20prison · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP