Donald Trump: Keynote, Nov 17, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during McDonald's Summit on November 17?
Markets
21 words · 14 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear 2+ times | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tax / tariff 10+ times | Yes | 52%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 5+ times | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 51%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Job 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – | |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | Yes | 49%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| America / American 15+ times | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Big Mac / Quarter Pounder | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fry / Fries | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Happy / Meal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Egg / Beef | Yes | 40%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 56%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Drug | No | 56%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| China / Russia 5+ times | No | 48%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Radical 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tucker / Marjorie | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 28%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / DOGE | No | 24%n=197 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-mcdonalds-summit-on-november-17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP