# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2024-07-18 · 19 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-his-rnc-speech · as_of 2026-10-27T17:03:54Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2024-07-18 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Felon	felon	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	no
Hunter	hunter	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	no
Jail/Prison	jail|prison	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	yes
MAGA	maga	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	yes
Rigged	rigged	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	no
Crack	crack	1	0	0	n	0.45	hist	no
Crypto/Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	0	0	n	0.45	hist	no
Dementia	dementia	1	0	0	n	0.45	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	0	0	n	0.45	hist	no
Jew	jew	1	0	0	n	0.45	hist	no
Barron	barron	0	0			0.49	prior	yes
Ear	ear	0	0			0.49	prior	yes
God	god	0	0			0.49	prior	yes
Hillbilly	hillbilly	0	0			0.49	prior	no
Hitler	hitler	0	0			0.49	prior	no
January 6	january 6	0	0			0.49	prior	no
Jesus	jesus	0	0			0.49	prior	no
Secret Service	secret service	0	0			0.49	prior	yes
Unity	unity	0	0			0.49	prior	yes