# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · interview 2025-05-16 · 17 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-baier-interview-on-may-16 · as_of 2026-10-26T13:37:58Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-05-16 · tn/th blank: no interview transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-baier-interview-on-may-16 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Joe / Biden 5+ times	biden|joe#5	5	6	5	0.83	YYnYYY	0.61	hist	yes
China 3+ times	china#3	3	10	7	0.7	YnYYYnYnYY	0.45	hist	yes
Judge	judge	1	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	0.44	hist	no
Ripped / Ripping	ripped|ripping	1	1	1	1	Y	0.43	hist	no
Apple	apple	1	4	2	0.5	nYYn	0.4	hist	yes
Marco	marco	1	0	0			0.38	hist	no
Stupid	stupid	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.37	hist	yes
Mike / Johnson	johnson|mike	1	0	0			0.35	hist	no
Syria	syria	1	2	0	0	nn	0.32	hist	yes
Reagan	reagan	1	8	3	0.38	nnnYYnYn	0.31	hist	yes
Russia / Ukraine 5+ times	russia|ukraine#5	5	0	0			0.31	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	90	4	0.04	nYnnnnnYnn	0.12	hist	no
Abraham	abraham	1	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Deal 10+ times	deal#10	10	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Erdogan	erdogan	1	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Port	port	1	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Trump	trump	1	0	0			0.37	prior	yes