Mark Rutte: Speech, Apr 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Rutte say during his address?
Polymarket What will Rutte say during speech on April 9?
Markets
36 words · 22 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drone | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alliance | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Arctic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Europe | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Freedom | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace / War 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Putin | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Step Up | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| The President | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Threat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Conflict | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Council | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cyber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| France | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Legality | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lock | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Energy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shadow | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epic Fury | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lethal / Lethality | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-rutte-say-during-speech-on-april-9 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP