Will Mark Rutte say “NATO” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “NATO” 3+ times at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 9, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 24, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Rutte
NATO (3+ times)
- Probability
- 55% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted; 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | NATO (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | NATO 3+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Mark Rutte say “NATO (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “NATO” 3+ times at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 9, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Rutte says “NATO (3+ times)” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Rutte: ‘NATO (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-rutte/words/nato-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-rutte&word=nato%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-rutte&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP