Will Mark Rutte say “Ceasefire” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte did not say “Ceasefire” 3+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 9, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 24, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (3+, named speaker only).
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Rutte
Ceasefire 3+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Ceasefire 3+ times |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Mark Rutte say “Ceasefire 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte did not say “Ceasefire” 3+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 9, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Rutte says “Ceasefire 3+ times” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Rutte: ‘Ceasefire 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-rutte/words/ceasefire-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-rutte&word=ceasefire%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-rutte&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP