# JD Vance (jd-vance) · other 2026-02-17 · 12 words · P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-in-manhattan-on-february-17 · as_of 2026-10-26T22:17:48Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-02-17 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-jd-vance-say-in-manhattan-on-february-17 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during his appearance at the fundraiser on February 17, 2026.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src
Midterm	midterm	1	1	1	Y	2	0	0.54	hist
Ass / Crazy	ass|crazy	0	0			2	1	0.54	hist
Iran / Ukraine	iran|ukraine	0	0			2	0	0.41	hist
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	3	1	0.33	Ynn	2	0	0.4	hist
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	6	0	0	nnnnnn	2	0	0.25	hist
Radical Left	radical left	13	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.16	hist
Commander	commander	0	0			2	0	0.46	prior
Gender	gender	0	0			2	0	0.46	prior
Illegal	illegal	0	0			2	2	0.46	prior
Right Now	right now	0	0			2	2	0.46	prior
Soros	soro	0	0			2	0	0.46	prior
Voter ID / VoterID	voter id|voterid	0	0			2	0	0.46	prior