# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-07-15 · 13 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL15 · as_of 2026-10-24T01:36:02Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-07-15 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26JUL15 ({word} = w of K rows): If David Muir says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Trump	trump	1	3	3	1	YYY	0.59	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	0.54	hist	no
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.52	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	1	1	1	Y	0.47	hist	yes
World Cup	world cup	1	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.35	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.33	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Blanche	blanche	1	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Daylight	daylight	1	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
New York	new york	1	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
Speech / Address	address|speech	1	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Taco Bell	taco bell	1	0	0			0.39	prior	yes