Tim Walz: Press conference, Jan 26, 2026
Kalshi What will Tim Walz say during his Press Conference?
Markets
13 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 67%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 66%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Citizen / American | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Noem | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nurse | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace / Peaceful | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Race / Racism / Racist | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Investigate / Investigating / Investigation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SNAP / Medicaid / Medicare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWALZMENTION-26JAN26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP