Will Tim Walz say “ICE / National Guard”?

As of Oct 27, 2026, Tim Walz said “ICE / National Guard” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 6, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

51%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=tim-walz&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Tim Walz

ICE / National Guard

Probability
51% · n=6
Settled
3/6 (50%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Tim Walz yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Tim Walz say during his MS NOW interview? · not listed

Open the appearance

Mention: Tim Walz holds a Press Conference · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Tim Walz say during his MS NOW interview? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Tim Walz say during the Oversight Fraud hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Tim Walz say during his interview? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Tim Walz say during his Press Conference? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Tim Walz say during his statewide address? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Tim Walz say during his press conference? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Tim Walz say during his Press Conference? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Tim Walz say during his press conference on January 5? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 6 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Mar 6, 2026ICE / National GuardKalshiYes
Jan 29, 2026ICE / National GuardKalshiNo
Jan 26, 2026ICE / National GuardKalshiYes
Jan 15, 2026ICE / National GuardKalshiYes
Jan 7, 2026ICE / National GuardKalshiNo
Jan 6, 2026ICE / National GuardKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Tim Walz say “ICE / National Guard”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Tim Walz said “ICE / National Guard” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 6, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 6, 2026.
What is the probability Tim Walz says “ICE / National Guard” next time?
51%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Tim Walz: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/tim-walz/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tim-walz&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tim-walz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP