# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-06-16 · 15 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN16D · as_of 2026-10-24T07:58:31Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-16 · tn/th last 3 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-05-19 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN16D ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: Gutfeld! , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	41	29	0.71	YYYYYnnYnn	3	3	0.56	hist	no
Minnesota	minnesota	1	0	0			3	1	0.55	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	23	16	0.7	YYYYnYYnYn	3	2	0.54	hist	no
Learing / Shirley	learing|shirley	1	1	1	1	Y	3	0	0.53	hist	no
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	1	1	1	Y	3	1	0.52	hist	no
Pope	pope	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	3	1	0.52	hist	no
250	250	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	3	0	0.5	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	25	15	0.6	YYnYYYnYnn	3	2	0.49	hist	no
Election	election	1	16	8	0.5	YnYnYnYnYn	3	0	0.48	hist	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	4	3	0.75	YYnY	3	1	0.46	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	4	2	0.5	YYnn	3	1	0.45	hist	yes
Newsom	newsom	1	4	1	0.25	nnYn	3	0	0.31	hist	no
FBI / Kash	fbi|kash	1	0	0			3	0	0.28	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	31	5	0.16	nnnnnYnYnn	3	2	0.19	hist	yes
UFC	ufc	1	0	0			3	0	0.4	prior	no