# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-05-20 · 12 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY20 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:32:21Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-05-20 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY20 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of the Announcement in the Oval Office originally scheduled for 3:00 pm ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Houthis	houthis	1	1	1	Y	0.43	hist	no
Beautiful	beautiful	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.43	hist	yes
Hegseth	hegseth	2	1	0.5	nY	0.41	hist	yes
Qatar	qatar	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.38	hist	no
Israel	israel	25	14	0.56	YnYnnnnnnn	0.33	hist	yes
Drone	drone	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.33	hist	no
Carnage	carnage	2	0	0	nn	0.33	hist	no
Missile	missile	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	yes
Golden Dome	golden dome	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Plane	plane	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Safest	safest	0	0			0.37	prior	no
Signal	signal	0	0			0.37	prior	no