Will “Hoax” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hoax” was not said at the White House press briefing on any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 31, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Hoax
- Probability
- 33% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…months before an election is being -- the president calls it a hoax. The way this has come around today and not three months ago,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Hoax” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hoax” was not said at the White House press briefing on any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 31, 2025.
- What is the probability “Hoax” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Hoax’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/hoax (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=hoax · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP