Will Marco Rubio say “Palestine / Gaza”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Marco Rubio said “Palestine / Gaza” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 2, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jun 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 73% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; May 5, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Marco Rubio
Palestine / Gaza
- Probability
- 73% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Palestine / Gaza |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Palestine / Gaza | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Marco Rubio say “Palestine / Gaza”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Marco Rubio said “Palestine / Gaza” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 2, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jun 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Marco Rubio says “Palestine / Gaza” next time?
- 73%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Marco Rubio: ‘Palestine / Gaza’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/marco-rubio/words/gaza-or-palestine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=marco-rubio&word=gaza%20%2F%20palestine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=marco-rubio&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP