Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Hearing, Apr 16, 2026
Kalshi What will RFK say during the Hearing on Health and Human Services?
Markets
16 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic | Yes | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | Yes | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| FDA / CDC | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pharmaceutical / Pharma | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Measles | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Peptide / BPC-157 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Vaccine / Vaccination | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Opioid | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obese / Obesity | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fluoride | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Processed Food | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXRFKMENTION-26APR16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP