Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. say “Vaccine / Vaccination”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said “Vaccine / Vaccination” at 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 3, 2026 (62%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 press briefing; Jan 7, 2026 – Aug 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

58%from settlement history only · n=8counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=robert-f-kennedy-jr&word=vaccination%20%2F%20vaccine

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vaccine / Vaccination

Probability
58% · n=8
Settled
5/8 (62%)
Last 2 transcripts
said in 2 of 2

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will RFK say during RNC Midterm Convention? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will RFK say during Saturday in America? · said 5 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

5 counted; 4 by speakers the rule does not count.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.guest18:40In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.guest19:32In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will RFK or Dr. Oz say during their Fraud News Conference? · not listed

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What will RFK say during the Dept of HHS Budget hearing? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will RFK say during the Hearing on Health and Human Services? · settled yes

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What will RFK say during his announcement on Microplastics? · not listed

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What will RFK say during his CPAC Fireside Chat? · settled no

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What will RFK say during his press conference? · not listed

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What will RFK say on 60 Minutes? · settled yes

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Mention: RFK One Year of MAHA · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 8 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 10, 2026Vaccine / VaccinationKalshiYes–
Aug 29, 2026Vaccine / VaccinationKalshiYes5
Apr 21, 2026Vaccine / VaccinationKalshiYes–
Apr 16, 2026Vaccine / VaccinationKalshiYes–
Mar 28, 2026Vaccine / VaccinationKalshiNo–
Feb 16, 2026Vaccine / VaccinationKalshiYes–
Feb 10, 2026Vaccine / VaccinationKalshiNo–
Feb 3, 2026Vaccine / VaccinationKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Robert F. Kennedy Jr. say “Vaccine / Vaccination”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said “Vaccine / Vaccination” at 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 3, 2026 (62%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026.
What is the probability Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says “Vaccine / Vaccination” next time?
58%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: ‘Vaccine / Vaccination’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/robert-f-kennedy-jr/words/vaccination-or-vaccine (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=robert-f-kennedy-jr&word=vaccination%20%2F%20vaccine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=robert-f-kennedy-jr&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP