Mark Rutte: Keynote, Jun 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Rutte say during his Atlantic Council conversation?
Markets
11 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 65%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26JUN25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP