# Mark Rutte (mark-rutte) · keynote 2026-06-25 · 11 words · K k:KXPOLITICSMENTION-26JUN25 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:34:59Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-25 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXPOLITICSMENTION-26JUN25 ({word} = w of K rows): If Mark Rutte says {word} as part of Atlantic Council - NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on the Ankara summit agenda , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Nuclear	nuclear	1	5	4	0.8	nYYYY	0.65	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	4	4	1	YYYY	0.62	hist	yes
Russia / Russian	russia|russian	1	2	2	1	YY	0.6	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.58	hist	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.46	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.41	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	1	0	0	n	0.41	hist	no
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.3	hist	yes
Security	security	1	0	0			0.46	prior	yes