Kash Patel: Press conference, Apr 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Kash Patel say during his press conference?
Markets
13 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defamation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2020 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Atlantic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taxpayer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR21C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP