Will Kash Patel say “Hormuz”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kash Patel did not say “Hormuz” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 press briefing; Nov 12, 2025 – Sep 19, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kash Patel
Hormuz
- Probability
- 27% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Kash Patel say “Hormuz”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kash Patel did not say “Hormuz” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Kash Patel says “Hormuz” next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kash Patel: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kash-patel/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kash-patel&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kash-patel&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP