# Mark Kelly (mark-kelly) · keynote 2026-04-15 · 11 words · K k:KXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR15B · as_of 2026-10-24T22:55:03Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-15 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR15B ({word} = w of K rows): If Mark Kelly says {word} as part of Taking the Pulse of Consumer Markets | Semafor World Economy 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Trump	trump	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	0	0			0.53	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	0	0			0.53	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	no
Republican	republican	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	0	0			0.44	prior	yes
Democracy	democracy	0	0			0.44	prior	no
Election	election	0	0			0.44	prior	no
Grocery	grocery	0	0			0.44	prior	no
Inflation	inflation	0	0			0.44	prior	no
Tariff	tariff	0	0			0.44	prior	no