Will “Insurrection Act” be said at the next Political debates?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Insurrection Act” was not said at the Political debates on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Political debates
Insurrection Act
- Probability
- 44% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Insurrection Act |  Kalshi | No |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Insurrection Act | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “Insurrection Act” said at the Political debates?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Insurrection Act” was not said at the Political debates on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 27, 2026.
- What is the probability “Insurrection Act” is said at the Political debates next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Insurrection Act’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/insurrection-act (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=insurrection%20act · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP