# Gavin Newsom (gavin-newsom) · speech 2026-01-09 · 12 words · K k:KXNEWSOMMENTION-26JAN09 · as_of 2026-10-25T01:08:07Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-09 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNEWSOMMENTION-26JAN09 ({word} = w of K rows): If Gavin Newsom says {word} as part of State of the State Address on January 8th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	2	2	1	YY	0.54	hist	yes
Trump	trump	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.52	hist	yes
Democracy	democracy	4	2	0.5	YYnn	0.4	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	0	0	n	0.29	hist	no
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	1	0	0	n	0.29	hist	yes
Maduro / Oil	maduro|oil	0	0			0.29	hist	no
Clean Energy	clean energy	2	0	0	nn	0.26	hist	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	2	0	0	nn	0.25	hist	yes
Fire / Wildfire / Palisades	fire|palisade|wildfire	0	0			0.2	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	0	0			0.35	prior	no
Homeless / Homelessness	homeless|homelessness	0	0			0.35	prior	yes
Immigrant / Immigration	immigrant|immigration	0	0			0.35	prior	yes