# Gavin Newsom (gavin-newsom) · panel 2026-02-25 · 15 words · K k:KXNEWSOMMENTION-26FEB25 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:39:45Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-25 · tn/th blank: no panel transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNEWSOMMENTION-26FEB25 ({word} = w of K rows): If Gavin Newsom says {word} as part of An Evening with Gavin Newsom in New York, NY, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src
Trump	trump	11	9	0.82	YnYYYYnYYY	0.7	hist
Homeless / Homelessness	homeless|homelessness	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.59	hist
Democracy	democracy	11	7	0.64	YnnYYYnYnY	0.59	hist
Fire / Wildfire	fire|wildfire	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist
Podcast	podcast	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist
San Francisco	san francisco	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist
ICE / Border	border|ice	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.56	hist
Childhood	childhood	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist
Climate	climate	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist
Same Sex	same sex	1	0	0	n	0.36	hist
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	8	1	0.12	nnnnnnnY	0.33	hist
Healthcare	healthcare	6	1	0.17	nnnYnn	0.3	hist
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	4	0	0	nnnn	0.24	hist
Dyslexia	dyslexia	0	0			0.46	prior
SAT	sat	0	0			0.46	prior