# Gavin Newsom (gavin-newsom) · remarks 2026-02-21 · 12 words · K k:KXNEWSOMMENTION-26FEB21 · as_of 2026-10-24T13:34:49Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-21 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNEWSOMMENTION-26FEB21 ({word} = w of K rows): If Gavin Newsom says {word} as part of public safety effort at San Quentin, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Homeless / Homelessness	homeless|homelessness	2	2	1	YY	0.64	hist	no
Trump	trump	9	7	0.78	YYnYYYYnY	0.64	hist	yes
ICE / Border	border|ice	1	1	1	Y	0.59	hist	no
Mental Health	mental health	1	1	1	Y	0.59	hist	yes
Safe / Safer / Safety	safe|safer|safety	1	1	1	Y	0.59	hist	yes
Democracy	democracy	9	6	0.67	YYnnYYYnY	0.59	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	2	0	0	nn	0.3	hist	no
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
Crime / Criminal	crime|criminal	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Death Row	death row	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Education	education	0	0			0.47	prior	no
Kalshi	kalshi	0	0			0.47	prior	no