# JD Vance (jd-vance) · remarks 2026-03-17 · 13 words · K k:KXMENTION-JD26MAR17 · as_of 2026-10-26T19:12:10Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-17 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMENTION-JD26MAR17 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of St. Patrick's Day breakfast, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
American Dream	american dream	14	12	0.86	YYYYYYYYYY	2	0	0.77	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	14	12	0.86	YYYYnYYYYY	2	2	0.74	hist	no
Biden	biden	22	18	0.82	YYYYYnYnYY	2	2	0.69	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	9	6	0.67	YYYnYYnnY	2	1	0.6	hist	no
Usha	usha	4	2	0.5	nnYY	2	0	0.52	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	4	2	0.5	YnnY	2	1	0.51	hist	no
Gold	gold	1	1	1	Y	2	0	0.49	hist	no
Iran	iran	4	2	0.5	YnnY	2	0	0.48	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	18	6	0.33	nnnnnYnnnY	2	0	0.33	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	13	2	0.15	nnnnnnnnnn	2	1	0.17	hist	no
Luck / Lucky	luck|lucky	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	no
Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day	saint patrick day|saint patrick's day	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	yes
Shamrock	shamrock	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	yes