Hakeem Jeffries: Keynote, May 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Hakeem Jeffries say during the CAP IDEAS Conference?
Markets
13 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 73%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Unconstitutional / Constitution / Constitutional | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXJEFFRIESMENTION-26MAY19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP