Kathy Hochul: Remarks, Apr 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Kathy Hochul say during her next announcement?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Childcare | Yes | 74%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 65%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Mayor / Mamdani | Yes | 64%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | Yes | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Buffalo | No | 64%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Common Sense | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rich / Wealthy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 40%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 40%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Florida | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOCHULMENTION-26APR02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP