Congressional hearings, Jun 24, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Senate hearing on Drug Cartels?
Markets
14 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 76%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 73%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Addict / Addicted / Addiction | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | 59%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 77%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Overdose | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mental Health | No | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN24B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP