Wes Moore: Panel, Apr 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Wes Moore say during his NAN Fireside Chat?
Markets
11 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afghanistan / Iraq | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / TSA | No | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXGOVERNORMENTION-26APR09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP