Jacob Frey: Remarks, Feb 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Jacob Frey say during the State of the Swamp?
Markets
13 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chaos | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Invaded / Invading / Invasion | No | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | No | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Accountable / Accountability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Renee / Pretti | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXFREYMENTION-26FEB25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP