Will Jacob Frey say “Invaded / Invading / Invasion”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Jacob Frey said “Invaded / Invading / Invasion” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 22, 2026 (67%), most recently on Feb 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jacob Frey
Invaded / Invading / Invasion
- Probability
- 49% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to keep the peace, notwithstanding this occupying force that has quite literally invaded our city. I mean, we've got 600 cops in the city of…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Invaded / Invading / Invasion |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Invaded / Invading / Invasion | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Invaded / Invading / Invasion | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Jacob Frey say “Invaded / Invading / Invasion”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Jacob Frey said “Invaded / Invading / Invasion” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 22, 2026 (67%), most recently on Feb 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Jacob Frey says “Invaded / Invading / Invasion” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jacob Frey: ‘Invaded / Invading / Invasion’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jacob-frey/words/invaded-or-invading-or-invasion (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jacob-frey&word=invaded%20%2F%20invading%20%2F%20invasion · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jacob-frey&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP