# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2026-03-18 · 17 words · K k:KXENTMENTION-PROB26MAR18 · as_of 2026-10-24T05:22:36Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-03-18 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXENTMENTION-PROB26MAR18 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 50 Episode 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Key	key	13	5	0.38	nnnnnnYYYY	0.54	hist	yes
Fire	fire	14	8	0.57	YYnnnnYYnY	0.48	hist	no
Puzzle	puzzle	14	6	0.43	YnnYnnYYnY	0.47	hist	yes
Water	water	4	2	0.5	nYYn	0.42	hist	yes
Alliance	alliance	16	3	0.19	nnnnnYnnnY	0.33	hist	no
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	14	6	0.43	YnYYYnYnnn	0.32	hist	yes
Medic / Medical	medic|medical	6	2	0.33	YnnYnn	0.31	hist	no
Fish / Fishing	fish|fishing	5	1	0.2	nnYnn	0.28	hist	yes
Sit Out	sit out	1	0	0	n	0.27	hist	yes
Fiji	fiji	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.26	hist	yes
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	10	1	0.1	nnnnnnYnnn	0.22	hist	no
Billie Eilish	billie eilish	3	0	0	nnn	0.21	hist	no
MrBeast / Beast	beast|mrbeast	3	0	0	nnn	0.21	hist	no
Trust	trust	15	3	0.2	nnnnYnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
Hunger / Hungry	hunger|hungry	14	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	0.16	hist	no
Rope	rope	0	0			0.35	prior	no
Safe / Safety	safe|safety	0	0			0.35	prior	yes