Will Donald Trump say “Wall”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Wall” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 17, 2025 (50%), most recently on Sep 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Wall
- Probability
- 57% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I imitated Biden on the stage where he used to walk off walls and could never find the stairs. No, he could never find the…
…so much oil around. And you know today was announced in the Wall Street Journal that our navies unbelieved the blockade more oil came out…
…row jack. We got all the front row and we have Mr. Wall. I love Mr. Wall. He's a very, very successful guy. I saw…
…for one single solution. All of a sudden, the -- the usual walls between the solid institutions and government break down and we make change…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Wall”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Wall” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 17, 2025 (50%), most recently on Sep 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Wall” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Wall’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/wall (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=wall · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP