Congressional hearings, Feb 10, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Somali Fraud hearing?
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billion | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Migrant | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Islamophobia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shirley | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Walz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Whistleblower | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / DOGE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Learing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| YouTube / YouTuber | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCONGRESSMENTION-26FEB13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP