Will “Party” appear on the next NYT front page?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Party” did not appear on the NYT front page on any of the 5 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 4.

32%from settlement history only · n=5counts: anyone
Last 10
0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 5 times
Counts
anyone
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=party

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

Party

Probability
32% · n=5
Settled
0/5 (0%)
Last 8 front pages
said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Monday, October 12otherNYT front-page headlines, October 12–18, 2026 · Oct 18, 2026In transcript

Trump’s Unpopularity Digs Hole for Party

Monday, October 5otherNYT front-page headlines, October 5–11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026In transcript

Deadly Shooting at Block Party

Wednesday, September 23otherNYT front-page headlines, September 21–27, 2026 · Sep 27, 2026In transcript

A.I. Party House Nightmares

Friday, September 18otherNYT front-page headlines, September 14–20, 2026 · Sep 20, 2026In transcript

Party’s Hopes in Georgia Falter as Democrats Press Advantage

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not said

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not said

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not said

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not said

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · settled no

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 4, 2026PartyPolymarketNo0
Sep 6, 2026PartyPolymarketNo0
Aug 30, 2026PartyPolymarketNo0
Aug 23, 2026PartyPolymarketNo0
Aug 16, 2026PartyPolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does “Party” appear on the NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Party” did not appear on the NYT front page on any of the 5 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 16, 2026.
What is the probability “Party” appears on the NYT front page next time?
32%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Party’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/party (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=party · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP