Will “Ukraine” appear on the next NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ukraine” appeared on the NYT front page on 2 of 4 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (50%), most recently on Sep 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 5.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceThe New York Times (front page)
Ukraine
- Probability
- 51% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 front pages
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
1 counted.
Family Apartment in Ukraine Evaded Damage for Years, Awaiting the Inevitable
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does “Ukraine” appear on the NYT front page?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ukraine” appeared on the NYT front page on 2 of 4 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (50%), most recently on Sep 30, 2026.
- What is the probability “Ukraine” appears on the NYT front page next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Ukraine’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/ukraine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=ukraine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP