Will “Election / Campaign” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Election / Campaign” was said on The Last Word in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 18, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Election / Campaign
- Probability
- 39% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Election / Campaign |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Election / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Election / Campaign” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Election / Campaign” was said on The Last Word in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 18, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Election / Campaign” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Election / Campaign’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/campaign-or-election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=campaign%20%2F%20election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP