Will “Oil / Gas / Gasoline” appear on the next NYT front page?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Oil / Gas / Gasoline” appeared on the NYT front page on 5 of 6 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2026 (83%), most recently on Sep 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 7.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceThe New York Times (front page)
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
- Probability
- 55% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last 8 front pages
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
2 counted.
A Faraway War Brings Guyana An Oil Windfall
India Squeezed on Oil
Counts: anyone
4 counted.
Deadly Limbo In Fitful Battle Over Strait Oil
Saving an Arm and a Leg on Gas: No Lead Foot
Counts: anyone
1 counted.
Moving a Castle by Hand Dwindling Oil Reserves The Foo Fighters Formula
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Oil / Gas / Gasoline |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often does “Oil / Gas / Gasoline” appear on the NYT front page?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Oil / Gas / Gasoline” appeared on the NYT front page on 5 of 6 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2026 (83%), most recently on Sep 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Oil / Gas / Gasoline” appears on the NYT front page next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Oil / Gas / Gasoline’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/gas-or-gasoline-or-oil (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=gas%20%2F%20gasoline%20%2F%20oil · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP