Face the Nation (CBS), August 30, 2026
On the Aug 30, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 4 of the 10 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 10 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
10 words · 4 settled yes · our count agreed on 10 of 10- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 4 | 7 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanction / Tariff | Yes | 4 | 11 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 3 | 10 | ✓ | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 2 | 6 | ✓ | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 7 | ✓ | 42%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 0 | 11 | ✓ | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 0 | 10 | ✓ | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
Where the listed words were said
This trip was exhilarating, because Ukraine is clearly making progress. It's turning the tide. But it was also heartbreaking to see the toll that this…
…it a homework assignment that he gave me, number one, the Russian sanctions bill, number two, air defense to protect against exactly the kind of…
…to crack down on the shadow fleet. And it has tariff authority, but narrowly constrained to the five largest purchasers of Russian oil and gas.
We've learned nothing from ICE. But we know that probably about 100 were detained and arrested. Very few of them, only a fraction, maybe six…
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